Drax
25th August 2004, 01:48 PM
After the fact. :oops:
I'm not proclaiming to be any sort of expert with FFL, as I've made my share of mistakes... (Including being able to draft Priest Holmes two years ago after his first monster season, and passing him, calling his previous season a fluke; only to see him have a bigger and better year... Ugh, I still remember my record that year b/c of that mistake... :oops: ;) Anyway, I'm posting my take on general drafting strategies to maybe offer some insight into how to draft.
The overlying purpose of Fantasy Football is to gather a team of good players, since s/he with the most points wins the game. That's pretty obvious. But the goal of a Fantasy Football draft is to get, not the best players necessarily, but the best value for your picks.
It is a common (and very necessary) philosophy that there are tiers to the talent in any sport, in this case the NFL. For this season, there are, commonly, 8 tier 1 RBs, 4 tier 1 QBs, maybe 3-5 tier 1 WRs, and 3.5 tier 1 TEs (Kellen Winslow Jr is considered a tier 1 TE to be, but hasn't proven squat yet, so he's what I called 0.5 :)). For the RBs, for example, there are Priest Holmes, Ladanian Tomlinson, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Deuce McCallister, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, and Edgerine James, for the upcoming season. This is a common order and the one I generally agree with. (Personal preference/projections can alter the order a little, switching Priest and LT or LT and Ahman or bumping Shaun ahead of Ahman, etc., but this is considered the 2004 elite 8.) Getting one of the elite 8 backs is crucial, b/c backs get the most touches per game, typically, so they are usually the most important cog of a FFL engine, if you will; getting a back that is nearly guaranteed 15-25 touches a game and being able to do something with each touch is key.
Once the elite 8 backs are gone, choosing between the top WR and QB is usually next, so that by the time round 2 is finished, all top tier players (except tier 1 TE, which typically aren't taken before round 3) should be off the board.
Now for a league of our size (16 teams), being unable to get a top tier player in both the first two rounds is a strong possibility, thus my claim that the FFL draft is about getting the best value for your pick, as opposed to the best player. As an example, we'll use Ben Roethlisberger who was selected in the first round, 4th pick overall. He may very easily become the starter for Pittsburgh, and he may be very very good. But since no one except the drafter really knew who he was, picking BR could've waited until the middle to late rounds, very likely as late as round 14-15. So while BR could've been a good pick, he was not a good value pick, as he's not guaranteed to start a game at the start of the season, and most of the elite players were still on the board.
The same GM drated in round 3 Tiki Barber, which WAS a good value pick. He's listed as a starting RB, is projected to have good stats, and was picked with the 36th pick overall. Since every team must start 2 RBs and could start 3, having at least 4 quality RB (considering BYE weeks) is crucial. And since it is a common advocation to draft 2 RBs with your first two picks of the draft, it is conceivable that all 32 starting RBs could've been off the board by the start of round 3.
Another drafting tip that coincides with the "value pick" strategy is to gauge what your opponents want to and will do. For instance, I drafted Javon Walker in the 4th round, and my first WR. He was (I think) the 19th WR drafted. Considering his projected stats and maturity and situation, and that he definitely would not have been around 31 picks later (snaking 16 team draft), he was a great value pick. Good pick, but great value pick (especially that he was still available, since a few lower-projected WRs had already been taken).
Another key to drafting well is to plan your drafting strategy, but allow some flexibility. In our case with 16 teams, once a run began (a run is when the first of any given position is taken, then followed by many others trying to get the same position), you have to adjust your strategy so you're not missing out on a quality position player you may have to draft a round or two earlier than desired. For instance, the Berzerker Clerics drafted Mike Vanderjagt (K, Ind) in round 7, which prompted a run on kickers - in the next 12 slots, Elam, Wilkins, Vinateiri, Akers, Kasay, and Longwell were taken. There are only ~ 5 kickers in the top tier of kickers, and once you get beyond that top 5 or so, getting the 6th kicker is almost the same as getting the 16th best kicker; so adjusting your gameplan just to nab a kicker even tho' you get get a similar valued pick in two rounds is not usually a wise move. Same thing goes for TE and Defense; once you miss out on a top tiered choice, don't worry so much about it until later and follow your personal drafting strategy.
On the same token, however, if you had planned on grabbing a kicker in round 12, and you had a chance to grab a top 4 kicker once a run started, be flexible enough to do so if you think you're otherwise-next choice will still be available for your next pick. Being totally steadfast in your drafting strategy and not allowing any flexibility may result in a less than desireable team as well.
One goal that any GM should aim for is drafting quality backups for your team. We have a bench in our league, so we need to make the most of it. While picking sleepers (a player projected to do well, but without any real stats to back it up, such as my Eli Manning pick) or injured players who should return to action later in the season (ie, Anquan Boldin) to fill your bench may have some merit (with a little to a lot of risk), it is considered good practice to have enough backups to carry your team during BYE weeks or when a player goes up against a tough Defense. For our league, we start 1 QB, 2-3 RBs, 3-2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Def. Drafting a backup QB, backup TE, backup K, and backup Def, along with a 4-5th RB and WR each, is a great plan, tho' you only have so much room (in our case, 6 bench slots). So drafting the backup slots that will be tougher to find on the waiver wire is key. In other words, draft a backup defense that will give you flexibility during the season and a capable option during the other's BYE week, and don't worry about a second kicker until you need to (ie, their BYE week). I don't advise keeping a player in during their BYE week, such as the kicker, as any and all points are needed for weekly play and for tiebreaker roles.
Well, that's all I can come up with for now. This has been a work-in-progress over the past couple hours, so I hope it all makes sense. May re-read it in a bit. :) Enjoy! :)
Edit: Added an "er" where I needed to. :)
I'm not proclaiming to be any sort of expert with FFL, as I've made my share of mistakes... (Including being able to draft Priest Holmes two years ago after his first monster season, and passing him, calling his previous season a fluke; only to see him have a bigger and better year... Ugh, I still remember my record that year b/c of that mistake... :oops: ;) Anyway, I'm posting my take on general drafting strategies to maybe offer some insight into how to draft.
The overlying purpose of Fantasy Football is to gather a team of good players, since s/he with the most points wins the game. That's pretty obvious. But the goal of a Fantasy Football draft is to get, not the best players necessarily, but the best value for your picks.
It is a common (and very necessary) philosophy that there are tiers to the talent in any sport, in this case the NFL. For this season, there are, commonly, 8 tier 1 RBs, 4 tier 1 QBs, maybe 3-5 tier 1 WRs, and 3.5 tier 1 TEs (Kellen Winslow Jr is considered a tier 1 TE to be, but hasn't proven squat yet, so he's what I called 0.5 :)). For the RBs, for example, there are Priest Holmes, Ladanian Tomlinson, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Deuce McCallister, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, and Edgerine James, for the upcoming season. This is a common order and the one I generally agree with. (Personal preference/projections can alter the order a little, switching Priest and LT or LT and Ahman or bumping Shaun ahead of Ahman, etc., but this is considered the 2004 elite 8.) Getting one of the elite 8 backs is crucial, b/c backs get the most touches per game, typically, so they are usually the most important cog of a FFL engine, if you will; getting a back that is nearly guaranteed 15-25 touches a game and being able to do something with each touch is key.
Once the elite 8 backs are gone, choosing between the top WR and QB is usually next, so that by the time round 2 is finished, all top tier players (except tier 1 TE, which typically aren't taken before round 3) should be off the board.
Now for a league of our size (16 teams), being unable to get a top tier player in both the first two rounds is a strong possibility, thus my claim that the FFL draft is about getting the best value for your pick, as opposed to the best player. As an example, we'll use Ben Roethlisberger who was selected in the first round, 4th pick overall. He may very easily become the starter for Pittsburgh, and he may be very very good. But since no one except the drafter really knew who he was, picking BR could've waited until the middle to late rounds, very likely as late as round 14-15. So while BR could've been a good pick, he was not a good value pick, as he's not guaranteed to start a game at the start of the season, and most of the elite players were still on the board.
The same GM drated in round 3 Tiki Barber, which WAS a good value pick. He's listed as a starting RB, is projected to have good stats, and was picked with the 36th pick overall. Since every team must start 2 RBs and could start 3, having at least 4 quality RB (considering BYE weeks) is crucial. And since it is a common advocation to draft 2 RBs with your first two picks of the draft, it is conceivable that all 32 starting RBs could've been off the board by the start of round 3.
Another drafting tip that coincides with the "value pick" strategy is to gauge what your opponents want to and will do. For instance, I drafted Javon Walker in the 4th round, and my first WR. He was (I think) the 19th WR drafted. Considering his projected stats and maturity and situation, and that he definitely would not have been around 31 picks later (snaking 16 team draft), he was a great value pick. Good pick, but great value pick (especially that he was still available, since a few lower-projected WRs had already been taken).
Another key to drafting well is to plan your drafting strategy, but allow some flexibility. In our case with 16 teams, once a run began (a run is when the first of any given position is taken, then followed by many others trying to get the same position), you have to adjust your strategy so you're not missing out on a quality position player you may have to draft a round or two earlier than desired. For instance, the Berzerker Clerics drafted Mike Vanderjagt (K, Ind) in round 7, which prompted a run on kickers - in the next 12 slots, Elam, Wilkins, Vinateiri, Akers, Kasay, and Longwell were taken. There are only ~ 5 kickers in the top tier of kickers, and once you get beyond that top 5 or so, getting the 6th kicker is almost the same as getting the 16th best kicker; so adjusting your gameplan just to nab a kicker even tho' you get get a similar valued pick in two rounds is not usually a wise move. Same thing goes for TE and Defense; once you miss out on a top tiered choice, don't worry so much about it until later and follow your personal drafting strategy.
On the same token, however, if you had planned on grabbing a kicker in round 12, and you had a chance to grab a top 4 kicker once a run started, be flexible enough to do so if you think you're otherwise-next choice will still be available for your next pick. Being totally steadfast in your drafting strategy and not allowing any flexibility may result in a less than desireable team as well.
One goal that any GM should aim for is drafting quality backups for your team. We have a bench in our league, so we need to make the most of it. While picking sleepers (a player projected to do well, but without any real stats to back it up, such as my Eli Manning pick) or injured players who should return to action later in the season (ie, Anquan Boldin) to fill your bench may have some merit (with a little to a lot of risk), it is considered good practice to have enough backups to carry your team during BYE weeks or when a player goes up against a tough Defense. For our league, we start 1 QB, 2-3 RBs, 3-2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 Def. Drafting a backup QB, backup TE, backup K, and backup Def, along with a 4-5th RB and WR each, is a great plan, tho' you only have so much room (in our case, 6 bench slots). So drafting the backup slots that will be tougher to find on the waiver wire is key. In other words, draft a backup defense that will give you flexibility during the season and a capable option during the other's BYE week, and don't worry about a second kicker until you need to (ie, their BYE week). I don't advise keeping a player in during their BYE week, such as the kicker, as any and all points are needed for weekly play and for tiebreaker roles.
Well, that's all I can come up with for now. This has been a work-in-progress over the past couple hours, so I hope it all makes sense. May re-read it in a bit. :) Enjoy! :)
Edit: Added an "er" where I needed to. :)