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Shiz

16th August 2005, 12:19 PM

My brother plays FFL at ESPN so I can get access to a lot of the "analysis" over there. I will share it as I can:

Careful Collins?

While many fantasy leaguers agree the addition of Randy Moss (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4262')) could help Kerry Collins (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3115')) throw more TD passes than ever before, owners are still concerned about his tendency to throw almost as many interceptions as scoring passes. Last season, Collins was picked off 20 times, the second-highest total of his career.

But if Saturday's preseason performance against the 49ers was any real indication of things to come, Collins isn't going to try to force the ball downfield just because he has Moss and other potent weapons. Collins completed 8 of 12 attempts for 57 yards, completing half of his passes to RB LaMont Jordan (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5496')). Moss caught one ball for 11 yards.

When the San Francisco defense elected to take away the deep ball, Collins simply dumped the ball to his RB, demonstrating the newfound versatility of the Oakland offense. When he can't get the ball downfield to Moss, he can turn to his running backs or look to alternate options such as Doug Gabriel (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6503')), who caught a 20-yarder from Collins.

With a quality running game and a well-balanced crew of receivers, Collins won't have to force things to happen much like he did in the past. Not only can Moss improve Collins' TD numbers by making plays on balls that other receivers might not be able to, he can spread the ball around to different quality targets. Keep in mind that Collins once took the Giants to a Super Bowl and led the Panthers to the brink of a Super Bowl appearance. He isn't Peyton Manning (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4256')) or Trent Green (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=2547')), but he could deliver close to 30 TD passes while cutting down a bit on his turnovers in 2005. The danger is, however, that if the Raiders' defense looks very bad again, Collins might have to throw too often to keep the team in games, and that could mean additional mistakes. This still could be Collins' career year from a statistical perspective, overall.

Fine Firsts

Both Kurt Warner (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4541')) and Joey Harrington (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5889')) have been surrounded with a lot of talent this year, and there will be little or no room for excuses if either struggles during the regular season. But in their exhibition debuts this past weekend, both passers looked sharp with their newest sets of targets.

Joey Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889)
Quarterback
Detroit Lionshttp://espn.go.com/i/nfl/profiles/players/statsid/s5889.jpgProfile (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=5889)
2004 SEASON STATISTICSAttCompPaTDRuTDIntRat4892741901277.5

Harrington was very impressive as he completed all nine of his attempts at 11.1 yards per clip. He made good use of a healthy Roy Williams (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6766')) and Charles Rogers (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6338')). Harrington set the bar high against the Jets, and must keep it close to the level he set Friday. He's facing a now-or-never scenario in which Jeff Garcia (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4924')) could take his job. Harrington must succeed now or possibly becomes an official bust, so he's a high-risk, high-reward fantasy candidate.

Warner completed 14 of 19 attempts in Arizona's win over Dallas, including a picturesque 31-yard TD strike to Larry Fitzgerald (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6762')). If Anquan Boldin (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6390')) and Fitzgerald stay healthy, and rookie J.J. Arrington (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7220')) plays as well as Dennis Green expects him to, Warner still has the know-how to run an offense well. He should throw some timely scoring passes. But he might not be a dependable fantasy starter, as his numbers won't always be stellar. He still lacks the quick release and confidence of his salad days with the Rams. He can post respectable numbers, but don't expect him to be great, and he could still be an injury risk who doesn't respond well to big hits.

Plaxico is a pleasure

There were offseason off-field issues and training camp injuries that shed some doubt on Eli Manning (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6760'))'s new top target. But when the Giants opened their exhibition schedule, Manning put that all in the past and showed why he and Plaxico Burress (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5037')) could become a very productive QB/WR duo this year.

Against the Browns, Manning wasted no time establishing his connection with Burress. He threw a 20-yard scoring pass in the first quarter to his new No. 1 receiver, delivering a crisp, deep dart that Burress was able to nab over a smaller defender. Manning throws a very efficient, often pretty deep ball, and at 6-foot-5, 226 pounds with uncanny quickness for his size, Burress will make many plays downfield for Manning against overmatched defensive backs.

Manning and Burress could be a perfect match. Never before has Burress played with a QB who throws such a good-looking deep ball. And Manning can only benefit from having a big target who can make big plays. Manning is still young and will certainly make some mistakes and suffer through bouts of inconsistency. But Burress could be a great value pick this year who has some big games when the matchups are right. And Manning should emerge as a fine fantasy backup. By 2006, these two could be quite a potent duo if Burress keeps his head in the game.

Passing on the numbers

In the preseason opener, Daunte Culpepper (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4659')) threw a 33-yard TD pass to Nate Burleson (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6407')). While that might excite some Culpepper owners who see this as any early sign that Culpepper might not see a dip in totals without Moss, a closer look at the numbers reveals another angle. Without Moss, Culpepper might still find Burleson often, but his passing TD totals could still slide. In the five games Moss missed or played briefly in 2004 due to injury, Culpepper threw just one TD pass in three of those games, and two in another. His only big outing was a four-TD outing against a soft Packers defense. Burleson caught four TD passes during that span. When Moss was available (11 games), Culpepper had only three games in which he was limited to just one TD pass. Plus, he had three five-TD games. In the five games without Moss or in which he played briefly, Culpepper threw nine TD passes, an average of 1.5 per game. With Moss in good health, he threw 30 TD passes in 11 games, nearly three TD passes per game.

Rebirth of the Titan?

Steve McNair (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3114)
Quarterback
Tennessee Titanshttp://espn.go.com/i/nfl/profiles/players/statsid/s3114.jpgProfile (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=3114)
2004 SEASON STATISTICSAttCompPaTDRuTDIntRat21512981973.1

If you saw the Titans' preseason opener, you might have thought you were viewing a flashback. A trimmer, leaner Steve McNair (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3114')) was looking like he did earlier in his career.

McNair was aggressive, and more importantly, creative against the Bucs. He looked nimble, often taking off to move out of the pocket or scramble. Despite recent injury concerns, McNair looked like he was refusing to hold anything back and will continue to play at a high level of intensity instead of being conservative in an effort to stay healthy.

McNair could still be a very dependable fantasy starter if he avoids injuries. But if he runs more often this year and continues to take a relentless approach to the game, he'll be a very risky pick. Don't lean on McNair as a regular starter, but he could be one of two quality starting choices for your team if you don't grab an elite passer early on.

Spirals

Don't look for Chad Hutchinson (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6148')) to last too long as a starter in the injured Rex Grossman's place. Rookie Kyle Orton (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7282')) has much more pure talent, and Jeff Blake (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=2188')) can make more things happen. Orton is a fine keeper league option, and Blake will be interesting to watch if he plays, although he doesn't figure to be anything more than a desperation free-agent pickup. Seattle backup Seneca Wallace (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6446')) (12-20, 1 TD pass, 24-yard TD run) looked terrific against New Orleans, and if Matt Hasselbeck (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4416')) were to go down, he'd be an intriguing addition because of his great mobility. Gus Frerotte (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=2869')) didn't look great, but A.J. Feeley (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5603')) looked bad again. Frerotte can at least make the offense look respectable at times. Neither one is worth drafting. The Bills look like they will run a very conservative game plan with J.P. Losman (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6781')). Look for lots of bootlegs, play-action and short passing sets. The emphasis will be on minimizing mistakes. Losman should only be drafted as a reserve if you miss out on about another 20 or so QBs.

Shiz

23rd August 2005, 05:12 PM

Some stuff on WRs.

Success in the Cards

Looking for that major breakthrough receiver for 2005? The guy who simply explodes and plays even better than expected? Then target Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6762')), who could emerge as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver this year.

In last week's preseason game, Fitzgerald made a brilliant 31-yard scoring catch, a sign of things to come. Not only is Fitzgerald a big target at 6-3, 223 pounds but he has great open-field gears for a player of his size. He gets off the line quickly and can seamlessly gain separation from defensive backs. He is a very intelligent young player who also can find holes in zone coverages and make tough catches over the middle.

Fitzgerald also can beat smaller DBs for jump balls, especially near the goal line. From a pure talent perspective, he might be one of the most complete wide receivers in the NFL. And playing across from Anquan Boldin (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6390')) only helps him, as Fitzgerald won't face regular double-teaming.

Last year, Fitzgerald caught eight TD passes, four in his final three games. In his second season, he could blossom into a 1,100-yard receiver who scores just as often, if not more.

Sophomore slide?

Lee Evans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6772)
Wide Receiver
Buffalo Billshttp://espn.go.com/i/nfl/profiles/players/statsid/s6772.jpgProfile (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6772)
2004 SEASON STATISTICSRecYdsTDAvgLongYAC48843917.669198

Lee Evans (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6772')) was another rookie who shone brightly in 2004, catching nine TD passes, including seven in his last six games. Evans became a prolific deep target across from Eric Moulds (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3510')), who functioned as the possession receiver.

But with inexperienced J.P. Losman (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6781')) taking over at QB, fantasy owners aren't expecting too many fireworks from the Buffalo offense. If the early preseason has been any indication of things to come, the Bills will exhibit a very conservative game plan that won't feature a lot of downfield displays.

Still, Evans might continue to function as a reliable fantasy starter even if he doesn't make a regular amount of big plays. With Moulds' best years definitely behind him, and Evans a near lock to be a featured receiver for Buffalo for a long time, the Bills might try to get him the ball in other ways than just tossing it deep.

Evans has shown an increased willingness to make the tough short-range possession catch this preseason, and he could start to become more dependable as a short- and mid-range receiver. Evans caught a 5-yard TD pass against the Colts last week, demonstrating he can score from close range, as well.

Evans averaged an incredible 17.6 yards per catch last year. That number is sure to go down in 2005, but he could dish out good totals with a steadier amount of catches and less explosiveness. Evans still is a fine middle-round pick.

Cats in Competition

Keary Colbert (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6820)
Wide Receiver
Carolina Panthershttp://espn.go.com/i/nfl/profiles/players/statsid/s6820.jpgProfile (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?statsId=6820)
2004 SEASON STATISTICSRecYdsTDAvgLongYAC47754516.063181

The acquisition of veteran Rod Gardner (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5462')) means second-year man Keary Colbert (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6820')) will have to work hard to retain his starting job. Colbert has maintained a positive attitude during camp, and has impressed the Panthers' coaching staff with his upbeat approach.

Both Colbert and Gardner are possession types who have displayed a knack for making timely TD receptions. Neither player, though, has demonstrated the ability to be productive consistently. Colbert has some upside, and Gardner could be more dependable playing with underrated Jake Delhomme (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4555')). Colbert is the better late fantasy pick because of his age (23) and promise, but Gardner has something to prove after being run out of Washington and is worth a late-round gamble, as well.

Rookie to Watch

Although there are no indications yet that he might move up the depth chart past Justin Gage (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6479')) or Bernard Berrian (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6837')), Bears rookie Mark Bradley (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7215')) has been one of the more positive stories in a Chicago camp that has been filled with frustration because of the loss of Rex Grossman (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6358')) and the holdout of Cedric Benson (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7180')).

Gage is currently listed as the starter opposite Muhsin Muhammad (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3511')), but he has done little to distinguish himself so far in exhibition play. He did not catch a pass in either of the first two preseason games. Bradley, meanwhile, has totaled 194 receiving yards in two preseason games. Berrian has great pure ability as a downfield receiver but has yet to prove much.

Keep a close watch on Bradley. This time last year, no one was talking much about Evans or Michael Clayton (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=6774')), two fine rookie wideouts in '04. Bradley could indeed emerge as a good first-year player in '05, especially if veteran Jeff Blake (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=2188')) gets to play at QB and shows he can still toss the ball deep with some decent results.

Dark-horse Dolphin?

Miami has elevated David Boston (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=4656')) to the second team on its depth chart, and you can only wonder whether he will move up further. There is no doubt Boston has much to prove since his stock fell greatly for varied reasons after a superb 2001 campaign.

Boston remains a large target with big-play ability despite his character questions. And with A.J. Feeley (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5603')) continuing to struggle, Gus Frerotte (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=2869')) is likely to win the job at QB. Frerotte is a veteran, and he might have an occasional good outing. Boston still has the talent to step up and play well at times opposite Chris Chambers (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5499')), so take a chance on Boston in the final rounds.

Route Running

Randy Moss' latest distraction regarding possible substance abuse likely won't affect his fantasy value unless he fails a test. Dennis Northcutt (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=5061')) has kept a firm grip on a starting job in Cleveland, but he likely would lack consistency as a regular, and it's probably just a matter of time during the regular season before he loses out to Braylon Edwards (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7179')). Jimmy Smith (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=2017')) has refuted any claims that he is slowing down. And judging by how Smith plays every year, don't believe he will decline until you actually see it happen. Jerry Rice (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=126')) is now Denver's third receiver, but he's still not worth drafting. Joe Horn (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=3646')) dropped two passes against the Patriots on Thursday, but there is no real cause for alarm. Not only is rookie Troy Williamson (http://javascript:newWin('/cgi/ffl/request.dll?PLAYERCARD&nPlayerID=7183')) buried on the Vikings' depth chart right now but an ankle injury has hindered his progress during camp.

Lycos

24th August 2005, 04:02 PM

Thanks Shiz. :D