Week 1 predictions

[Shiz]

So, I noticed Yahoo! let's us vote on each match-up each week, although not yet apparently. Go to Match-Up and scroll down.

Anyway, here is my analysis against Drax:

Boller v Palmer: Palmer clearly the better QB but the Ravens will likely be down by a lot of points to Ind so Boller should be throwing the ball 2x as much as normal, -2

Burleson v Lelie: Burleson all the way. Denver is going to rush a lot against Miami. +2

Clayton v Housh: Clayton only wins if Boller has a good day. -1

Davis v Tomlinson: Ugh. -6

Johnson v Martin: I get the better matchup. +4

Crumpler v Miller: I am confident that Crumpler will get a TD on Monday night, but I don't know anything about Miller. +2

Jordan v Parker: Starting RB v "Rookie" RB. I win. +3

Kickers: who the hell knows with kickers. -

Philly v Baltimore: Philly has a much better match-up with Baltimore up against Manning. +3

The Commissioner by six, folks. :D

[Drax]

Boller v Palmer: I agree, "Palmer clearly the better QB." However, I think the Bal-Indy game will be a close one, with Baltimore shutting down the "league's best offense." Plus Indy has a superb secondary, meaning if any Bal players have big games, it'll be Heap from short passes and Jamal Lewis, most likely not Boller.

Burleson v Lelie: Burleson gets to see if he's a worthy #1. Denver, tho', will most likely be tossing the ball against a weakened Miami secondary. Doubt if Anderson/Bell will be able to do as much as Shannon would like against Miami's line.

Clayton v Housh: Rookie v Sophomore. Tossup, with Housh likely winning the matchup.

Davis v Tomlinson: LT should dominate his game v Dallas. Davis will struggle against Buffalo, tho' that game may be closer than first appears, giving DD a chance to "catch-up" in junk time in the 4th.

Johnson v Martin: Rudi v Cleveland, v CMart v KC.

Crumpler v Miller: Alge against Phillie - likely a TD and some misc ydage as Vick acclimates himself to his new receivers (Jenkins, most notably). Miller against Ten - Pitts gets to see what they really have in Heath, a rookie TE with immediate impact potential, a la Gates.

Jordan v Parker: Jordan against stout NE D, v Speedy Sophomore against formerly (currently?) speedy Ten Dline. Ought to be interesting matchup.

Kickers: Vinateiri v Carney. As Shiz says, who knows? Though I imagine Oak shutting down a few NE drives, but I think Car will shut down many NO drives. Shiz may have this matchup.

Philly v Baltimore: Should be a close matchup between the two D's, tho' Shiz should (barely) win this one.

One more thing to consider, Shiz. You're assuming this is my final lineup. I have Jerry Porter and Charlie Rogers on my bench, and may plug in one or both of them for my current WRs, which may shift things more in my favor... :)

Ought to be a fun week 1, nevertheless...

[Drax]

So, I noticed Yahoo! let's us vote on each match-up each week, although not yet apparently. Go to Match-Up and scroll down.
Move the mouse pointer to just below the helmet of the team you want to vote for. I accidently voted for one team I didn't mean to, and apparently you cannot change your vote once cast. *shrug* Ah well...

[Shiz]

I saw Porter sitting there and wondered...

[Drax]

He has a hammy injury, so I want to make sure he starts before plugging him in. :)

Same with Fragile Charlie. I think I may put him in anyway, just so I can get some positive points out of him prior to this season's year-ending injury. :lowlol:

[noptov52]

DnD vs Barrack's Brawlers

Manning vs Favre: Favre faces the easier defense, but Manning has the edge in offensive firepower. +2

Jackson vs Moss: Moss is clearly the better player, but faces the daunting NE defense. However, Jackson doesn't have a walk in the park vs Jacksonville. -3

Coles vs Chambers: Chambers is probably more talented, but Coles has a solid QB throwing to him and a good offense around him. +2

McAllister vs McGahee: Battles of the Mc's, I give the edge to McGahee as McAllister faces the powerful Carolina defense. -2

Green vs Jackson: Jackson faces the worse team, but it is not clear how good he is or how many carries Faulk will mooch off of him. Meanwhile Green runs behind a line that lost 2 pro-bowl guards. Proven talent wins this matchup. +2

Cooley vs McMichael: Cooley snagged 6 TDs and came on down the stretch for the 'Skins as well as looking good in the preseason. Both have mediocre QBs, but I'll give the edge to Cooley as the 'Skins (shockingly) possess a better offense. +1

Drougns vs Brown: Battle of the platoon backs, Drougns wins by virtue of facing the weaker defense. +2

Kickers: Longwell vs Stover is pretty much a tossup, both teams face bad defenses. Packers have the better offense but that may translate into more extra points and less FGs. -1

Washington vs Indianapolis: No Brainer here, Washington comes in with the 3rd ranked defense against a rookie 4th round draft pick. Unless he's the second coming of Big Ben (or Marino), Washington should have a feast of sacks and ints. +3

DnD by 6.

[Shiz]

McAllister is going to stomp McGahee.

[Drax]

McAllister is going to stomp McGahee.
Personally, I think Noptov has the right of it. McGahee is Buffalo's only real offensive weapon, and he will be used early and often, especially against a Houston D that surrenderred 115 rushing yds per game last year, avg, and an avg of 21 pts. McCallister, while a more proven back and consistent, faces a stout Carolina D. Close call, but edge goes to the Buffalo Mick. :)

[Thuriniel]

Some of those matchups were very, very even indeed...I think this is going to be an interesting fantasy league.

[Serani]

I predict...that my season's gonna suck.

Wish I'd been able to do more research and draft this year. Ah, well. Guess it's time to go check out my lineup and make sure that, at least, each of them is playing this week...

[Lycos]

Who knows...

It's so early in the season. I'll just have to wait and see.

[Thuriniel]

I'm sitting DeShaun Foster for Barlow this week. Going with the 3-4 SuperChargers over the 3-4 Cowboys in the suicide pool.

[Erudite]

I predict I'm going to crush Thur, no matter which RB he starts. :lowrazz: ;)

[Thuriniel]

I'm comfortable with my team finally, hard as that is to imagine after that draft, anyway. I think I got some gamers, and maybe some future trade bait. I just have to hope that some of the upside I see in these guys is realized.

[Raveneye]

I predict my matchup this week will be too close to call until the final points are posted.

I think I have a solid team that can easily post from 80-100 points each week, but I can say the same thing about more than half the other teams in the league.

[Erudite]

The crushing has begun. :lowrazz:

[Thuriniel]

Well, there was no doubt that Dillon and Collins were gonna put up good numbers this week...the only question is what will McNabb, Owens and Westbrook do on MNF in answer?

[Shiz]

Well Drax. Congrats. Parker looked fantastic.

[Drax]

the only question is what will McNabb, Owens and Westbrook do on MNF in answer?
You'd better be praying that that stout Atl defense weakened quite a bit in the offseason... And that every TD is a pass to either WR#1 or RB... :mrgreen:

[Drax]

Well Drax. Congrats. Parker looked fantastic.
Yeah, figures my flex back that I almost took out of the lineup scores more than my #1 AND #2 Backs.... :lowlol:

Also thankfully Tennessee has no defense this year, so Heath Miller got a TD score in his only pass caught in his first NFL game. Yay. :)

Now to hope it's the Atlanta RB Show tonight, with Duckett'n'Dunn continuing their dominance from last season, making swiss cheese of Phillie's D and not allowing Alge to be a fun guy in the points department... *cough* ;)

[Barrack]

I need to remember to check on Fri before any games start to see if my team will be fully playing. heh

[Asharad]

Christ, that didn't work.

[Drax]

I need to remember to check on Fri before any games start to see if my team will be fully playing. heh
Actually, Barrack, I think you had your best (predicted) lineup active. Whether Brown or LJ should've been your flex back has plenty of pro's and con's too, so I think you had your best foot forward.

The Brett Favre thing was just a hiccup. He might not be the best option anymore, especially since his #1 WR went down for the season (Javon Walker), but he should still do okay over the course of the season.

And McGahee not scoring a TD was more a fluke than anything else. The QB in Buff actually surprised many (albeit against a weak D, but still), so McG should have a slightly better year than last season, possibly.

[Drax]

Uh oh. I think my other league's team is doomed. DOOMED!

Just realized that Ash and I share the same core of a team. :eek:

Of my list above, Ash and I share Alexander, KJones, Dallas Clark, Nate Kaeding, and Cadillac Williams... I think I should throw in the towel now...

Christ, that didn't work.

Heh, if it's any consolation (which I have no idea how the heck it could be... ;)), my other league's team did quite well, scoring (different scoring system - more of a true hybrid scoring than this league's TD league) 101.14 to my opponent's 79.18. :mrgreen: Unfortunately, I only could start 2 RBs, so I had KJones and Alexander active and Cadillac on my bench (who scored more than KJ and Alexander combined... *sigh*). Fitzgerald is what won it for me, scoring 25+pts, which was a little over 1 pt more than my QB, Tom Brady. :D

Edit: Oh, and I had Heath Miller starting instead of questionable Dallas Clark. :lowrazz:

[Shiz]

Yeah, I am much more bullish on McGahee than I was two days ago, but then I was much more bearish on him than "the experts" to begin with. Losman showed some poise I didn't expect.

Interesting how a lot of the start RBs had bad weeks. I don't expect it to continue.

[Raveneye]

Keep in mind as well that a lot of the "star" players have subpar Week 1 and 2 performances becuase they simply aren't used to playing a full game just yet. These guys played maybe a quarter in each preseason game, and conditioning only takes you so far, playing a full game in 90+ degree heat is a whole different story. This is part of the reason FFL pros will tell you not to drop a healthy starter in the first couple of weeks no matter how bad he seems to be playing.

I got much less production out of my crew than I had anticipated. My big DOH! moment of the week came from playing Denver's defense against Miami. Who knew that Gus would be the secret ingredient to spice up Miami's offense? Had I kept Jacksonville in as my D I would have an extra 10 points this morning. That was my only bench mistake though, the rest was just Week 1 underperformance. No TDs from Chad Johnson, Edgerrin James or Michael Clayton, how many weeks will that happen? Not many. Julias Jones held to under 100 yards, but nabs a TD. Jermaine Wiggins had TWO touchdown receptions called back, so despite his poor point total for the week he's proving to be one of Culpepper's favorite targets.

Lot of guys that nobody started or even owned had big weeks this week. My opponent left 22 points sitting on the bench in the form of Keenen McCardell. That's gotta hurt. The Willie Parker pickup was inspired Drax. Nice job.

[Drax]

The Willie Parker pickup was inspired Drax. Nice job.
Thanks. :lowsmile:

The one aspect of that move that I'm most proud of, was that I dropped Correll Buckhalter for Parker on my birthday (Aug 23), which was before Buck was officially done for the season and before Parker was named the opening day starter.

My prophetic abilities are developing...

Speaking of which, Atlanta will still lose to Phillie, but it will be the Battle of the Backs as Dunn, Duckett, Westbrook, and Moats combine for 6 TD scores. :mrgreen:

(Heh, at least that's what I'm hoping for.... :lowlol:)

[Raveneye]

I'll take a TD or two for Dunn tonight. I don't need the points, but it would be nice to see at least one of my guys score a TD after watching 3 out of 4 of my RB/WR's go scoreless yesterday.

[GravenStone]

I'll take a TD or two for Dunn tonight. I don't need the points, but it would be nice to see at least one of my guys score a TD after watching 3 out of 4 of my RB/WR's go scoreless yesterday.

Oh.shut.up! :roll: :lowlol:

[Erudite]

Well, there was no doubt that Dillon and Collins were gonna put up good numbers this week...the only question is what will McNabb, Owens and Westbrook do on MNF in answer?

And the answer is...not enough. RAWR! :lowrazz: ;)

Barrack's Brawlers up next for my little pixelated minions. I'm optimistic. :twisted:

[Drax]

Barrack's Brawlers up next for my little pixelated minions. I'm optimistic. :twisted:
I wouldn't be... :twisted:

[Erudite]

Awww...don't worry Drax. I get to abuse you in week 4. Everybody gets a turn! :twisted:

[Drax]

Awww...don't worry Drax. I get to abuse you in week 4. Everybody gets a turn! :twisted:
Aw, that's sweet... Actually, tho', I was talking about your upcoming battle with Barrack. It's nice to be optimistic, but were I you, I wouldn't be in this case.

As far as week 4, ought to be a fun week. I scoped out the matchup, along with possible switches, and it will definitely be a close victory for me. :mrgreen:

[Erudite]

Heh. Moss is by far his biggest weapon, and he won't be catching any balls that Collins doesn't throw.

The emergence of fast Willie Parker probably sends Hines Ward to the bench this week, though, since I expect Pittsburgh to run all day long against Houston. So, which receiver goes in? Jimmy Smith or Mike Williams? Decisions, decisions...

[Thuriniel]

My sadness as a FFL manager is only exceeded by sadness as an Eagle's fan this week. :frown:

[Shiz]

My sadness as a FFL manager is only exceeded by sadness as an Eagle's fan this week. :frown:

I hate losing both like that, although the FFL loss was worse since it was so close. Then again, it was only close because I was a stupid git and played Boller instead of Leftwich.

[Drax]

Heh. Moss is by far his biggest weapon, and he won't be catching any balls that Collins doesn't throw.
Amazing how two edumacated football, and especially fantasy football, fans can see the same situation so differently... :lowlol: :D

One observation about our league I did not notice until Monday morning, tho', is that this year is a QB-weighted league, which in years past it hasn't been. In my opinion, a player's points should be 10 for a normal "good" day. In other words, a WR with 100 yd receiving or a back with 100 yd rushing, should net 10 pts, or 1 pt/10 yds. A QB who throws 300 yd should net 10 pts, or 1pt / 30 yds. I think that's a fair mark on all accounts. For our league, a receiver who makes 100yd receiving nets 6.67pts, but a QB who reaches 300yd passing nets 15pts, more than double the WR/TE/RB century mark. Doesn't matter, it's that way for everyone, but it still gives the top 5-6 QBs a distinct advantage over everyone else, including RBs. Makes this more of a QB-K league, imo. Which will still definitely be fun, and much more interesting and abnormal. :lowsmile:

Back to your matchup with Barrack, tho'... Given what I said above, any TDs that Collins tosses to Moss will give you a distinct advantage over Barrack. However, I don't think TDs will be as easily-come by as they were last week, playing a much tougher KC D. Further McGahee is a potent weapon playing against an above avg but not incredibly tough TB D. (Last week against Minn was an anomally, imo.) Indy D will score again in the 16-20 pt range against Jac, where NYJ may fail to break 10pts against Miami. Plus any TDs that McMichael or Chambers score, will be more than 6pts, since they play against your Defense, which should make things quite interesting for that game. Finally, I fully expect Jackson to play like he was expected to in SF, and for Fitz to come somewhat back to earth against StL, and Warner, not Boldin or Fitz, to be the hero on Arizona's side of the game.

So how's that for a quick analysis of your impending (but close) defeat? :lowlol:

[Erudite]

In other words, a WR with 100 yd receiving or a back with 100 yd rushing, should net 10 pts, or 1 pt/10 yds. A QB who throws 300 yd should net 10 pts, or 1pt / 30 yds. I think that's a fair mark on all accounts. For our league, a receiver who makes 100yd receiving nets 6.67pts, but a QB who reaches 300yd passing nets 15pts, more than double the WR/TE/RB century mark.

Somewhat mitigated, in my opinion, by the .25 point given for each and every reception - which makes pass-catching backs like LT especially valuable.

Anyway, I fully expect my NYJ defense to return to respectability against Miami. They ain't playing Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson this week. :lowrazz:

Edit - only 1/4 point per reception. Doh. :roll:

[Raveneye]

Yup, thanks to the 0.25 PPR in our league the only position that really suffers is the pure RB who can't catch a pass to save his life. Pass catching backs have more value than any other position other than QB, because they are scoring points 3 different ways (rush yards, TDs, receptions). I like it.

I also like that TE is once again a viable position to strategize about due to the points per reception. Without that 0.25 points, there would only be 5 or 6 TE's that earned respectable points because they had a chance to haul in a TD every week.

[Drax]

So how's that for a quick analysis of your impending (but close) defeat? :lowlol:
I may have to change my opinion on this... I was assuming Barrack would substitute LJ in for CBrown, but now I'm not so sure...

Exhibit A (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ap-johnsonarrested&prov=ap&type=lgns)

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