Raveneye
9th September 2005, 06:03 PM
OK, by request here is an email I sent to a good friend of mine on what he should be looking for in a kicker for his team. I'm handing out trade secrets here people... :lowlol:
(to set the stage, he was asking about dropping Matt Stover to pickup the Vikings kicker based on the assumption that the Vikings will score more often. I have Shayne Graham (Bengals) so I used him as an example in my analysis earlier that you want a kicker on a "not too good" team for max points)
It really depends on the team. The Vikings will get to the red zone a lot more often than many other teams, and they'll convert that to a TD fairly often. Their kicker is still worth a lot more than say Chicago's or Miami's as those guys won't even get the opportunity to score a FG or a PAT nearly as often. I was simply saying that the Bengals have the offensive weapons to reach the red zone frequently, or at least close enough to merit a FG attempt, and yet they don't convert those trips into TDs at the rate a really good team like the Colts or Patriots would. Thus they have a higher percentage of points scored by their kicker than many other teams, and that puts Graham ahead of many of his peers.
On the other hand, teams that score early and often, such as the Patriots and the Colts, also produce respectable kicker scores. The top 5 kickers in fantasy points last year were Vinatieri, Elam, Akers, Graham and Reed. Looking at the scores for each shows the following:
Vinatieri made 48 PATs, which was actually LESS than 4 other kickers including those of the Colts, Cheifs and Chargers, 3 of the highest scoring offenses. But when you look at his FGs, Vin had 20 in the under-40-yard range and 11 in the 40-50-yard range. Since 40-50+ yarders score more fantasy points, this helped propel him to top of the charts.
Elam had 42 PATs, 17 under 40 FGs and 12 over 40 FGs (3 at 50+)
Akers had only 41 PATs, a total that was less than or equal to 8 other kickers, but he had 10 under 40 FGs, 15 40-50 FGs and 3 50+ FGs
Graham also had 41 PATs, but had 17 under 40 FGs, 7 40-50 FGs and 3 50+ FGs
Reed had 40 PATs, 21 under 40 FGs, 5 40-50 FGs and 2 50+ FGs
The top PAT kickers (which assumes they are on the most potent offenses that score from the red zone) were :
Vanderjagt - Colts (59 PATs) 15 under 40 FGs, 5 40-50 FGs, 0 50+ FGs (20 total FGs)
Tynes - Cheifs (58 PATs) 12 under 40FGs, 3 40-50 FGs, 2 50+ FGs (17 total FGs)
Keading - Chargers (54 PATs) 12 under 40 FGs, 5 40-50 FGs, 2 50+ FGs (19 total FGs)
Those FG totals are an average of 10 field goals less than the Top 5 FFL earners listed above them. That's 30-35 points when you consider 3 points for an under 40, 4 points for a 40-50, and 5 points for a 50+, so you'd have to see 30+ extra touchdowns from the offense for PATs to bridge that gap.
Kickers are a shifty lot. You want one on an offense good enough to get you within 40 yards of the endzone, yet not one on too good of an offense that you're stuck earning PATs when you could have seen a FG instead. It's best to err on the side of caution and take a high power offense kicker over one on a team that had toruble getting past the 50 yard line. Minnesota last year scored 41 TD's but only 17 FGs which would put them solidly in the second group above. (Stover had 30 PATs and a whopping 29 FGs to finish 7th in FFL points on the year)
Now granted, last year the Vikings went through what, like 3 kickers? So if they stay consistant this year with one guy, and he's good, there is a chance that he could rack up 40+ PATs and 25+ FGs, which would rank him Top 5. It's a gamble really, as there is no guarantee that Stover and Baltimore will put up nearly 30 FGs again this year, or score 30 TDs for that matter. I'd say the Vikings guy has more potential upside, but it comes at a higher assumed risk overall. Your choice, but I'd advise sticking with Stover.
(to set the stage, he was asking about dropping Matt Stover to pickup the Vikings kicker based on the assumption that the Vikings will score more often. I have Shayne Graham (Bengals) so I used him as an example in my analysis earlier that you want a kicker on a "not too good" team for max points)
It really depends on the team. The Vikings will get to the red zone a lot more often than many other teams, and they'll convert that to a TD fairly often. Their kicker is still worth a lot more than say Chicago's or Miami's as those guys won't even get the opportunity to score a FG or a PAT nearly as often. I was simply saying that the Bengals have the offensive weapons to reach the red zone frequently, or at least close enough to merit a FG attempt, and yet they don't convert those trips into TDs at the rate a really good team like the Colts or Patriots would. Thus they have a higher percentage of points scored by their kicker than many other teams, and that puts Graham ahead of many of his peers.
On the other hand, teams that score early and often, such as the Patriots and the Colts, also produce respectable kicker scores. The top 5 kickers in fantasy points last year were Vinatieri, Elam, Akers, Graham and Reed. Looking at the scores for each shows the following:
Vinatieri made 48 PATs, which was actually LESS than 4 other kickers including those of the Colts, Cheifs and Chargers, 3 of the highest scoring offenses. But when you look at his FGs, Vin had 20 in the under-40-yard range and 11 in the 40-50-yard range. Since 40-50+ yarders score more fantasy points, this helped propel him to top of the charts.
Elam had 42 PATs, 17 under 40 FGs and 12 over 40 FGs (3 at 50+)
Akers had only 41 PATs, a total that was less than or equal to 8 other kickers, but he had 10 under 40 FGs, 15 40-50 FGs and 3 50+ FGs
Graham also had 41 PATs, but had 17 under 40 FGs, 7 40-50 FGs and 3 50+ FGs
Reed had 40 PATs, 21 under 40 FGs, 5 40-50 FGs and 2 50+ FGs
The top PAT kickers (which assumes they are on the most potent offenses that score from the red zone) were :
Vanderjagt - Colts (59 PATs) 15 under 40 FGs, 5 40-50 FGs, 0 50+ FGs (20 total FGs)
Tynes - Cheifs (58 PATs) 12 under 40FGs, 3 40-50 FGs, 2 50+ FGs (17 total FGs)
Keading - Chargers (54 PATs) 12 under 40 FGs, 5 40-50 FGs, 2 50+ FGs (19 total FGs)
Those FG totals are an average of 10 field goals less than the Top 5 FFL earners listed above them. That's 30-35 points when you consider 3 points for an under 40, 4 points for a 40-50, and 5 points for a 50+, so you'd have to see 30+ extra touchdowns from the offense for PATs to bridge that gap.
Kickers are a shifty lot. You want one on an offense good enough to get you within 40 yards of the endzone, yet not one on too good of an offense that you're stuck earning PATs when you could have seen a FG instead. It's best to err on the side of caution and take a high power offense kicker over one on a team that had toruble getting past the 50 yard line. Minnesota last year scored 41 TD's but only 17 FGs which would put them solidly in the second group above. (Stover had 30 PATs and a whopping 29 FGs to finish 7th in FFL points on the year)
Now granted, last year the Vikings went through what, like 3 kickers? So if they stay consistant this year with one guy, and he's good, there is a chance that he could rack up 40+ PATs and 25+ FGs, which would rank him Top 5. It's a gamble really, as there is no guarantee that Stover and Baltimore will put up nearly 30 FGs again this year, or score 30 TDs for that matter. I'd say the Vikings guy has more potential upside, but it comes at a higher assumed risk overall. Your choice, but I'd advise sticking with Stover.